More election stuff

[apocalypsos]

I get cautiously optimistic every time I go over to electoral projection sites like FiveThirtyEight.com, Electoral Vote.com, and Election Projection and see that most of them are projecting about 350 electoral votes to Obama and about 180 to McCain, depending on the site. And then I pull myself back by thinking of that photo of Truman holding the "Dewey Defeats Truman" paper. It ain't over 'til it's over, you know?

Then again, hearing things from conservatives in the media like that I'm not a "real American" because I'm voting for Obama -- regardless of the real American vagina I came out of, the real America I've lived in since exiting said vagina, and the real America I've paid taxes to since I got my first job after the sixteenth anniversary of exiting said vagina -- makes me worry.

I think that if I'm not a real American, I must be an imaginary American, and therefore my life doesn't include nearly enough wizards and dragons. Hmph.

Comments

[ravenskye8.livejournal.com]

I think that if I'm not a real American, I must be an imaginary American, and therefore my life doesn't include nearly enough wizards and dragons. Hmph.

Hahahahaha!
OMG that's priceless... I think I must have a pin or something with that statement on it...

[shadowwolf13]

There's never enough wizards or dragons. :)

[medie]

oh but don'tcha know, you're not a real American if you're voting for Obama ANYWAY. He's not a 'real' American! There's a supposedly non-partisan video about it and EVERYTHING with a democrat lawyer suing him and his Gramma swearing he was born in Africa! But even if that doesn't count, the video has that covered too. He went to Indonesia and his stepdaddy lied so he could go to school and that means he TOTALLY surrendered his American citizen ship so now he's just a naturalized one, not a real one.

*facepalm* I tell you. The stupid, it BURNS.

[palmetto.livejournal.com]

I'm kicking myself for not being sure of this. Someone on the tv-box recently said that you can tell you're a real Democrat if you look at all of the polling figures and such and still are nervous that we're not going to be able to pull this one off.

I'm pretty sure it was Rachel Maddow.

[mike-smith.livejournal.com]

At this point, I don't think it's unrealistic to assume Obama's gonna win. I only look at the election maps on CNN and MSNBC's sites, and while they give Obama much smaller scores (277 and 264), McCain's still in the high 100's. The impression I'm getting is that there's states where the pollsters don't want to call it right away because it's to close, and Obama has been whittling away at them for the last few months. CNN will hand a state to Obama, and MSNBC will wait a few weeks, but the trend is still the same: Obama gains, McCain just sort of sits there.

I read a little about Dewey Defeats Truman, and the reason the paper screwed up was because the polls in those days were conducted by phones, but only certain demographics could afford phones then, which skewed the results. There's been talk of cell phones throwing off polls in '08, but I figure the last two elections have spooked the media out of boldly proclaiming a victor. And I don't think cell users are gonna come out in force for McCain.

To me, it looks more like the '96 election, where Clinton spanked Dole pretty hard. He was up by 9% or so in the polls, and Dole could only muster a little over 150 electoral votes, and the whole thing was over by 10pm. It might be closer this time, but that's how I see this playing out.

I guess McCain could mount some glorious comeback, but if he was gonna rally, wouldn't he have done it by now? Also, if the whole "We don't know who this young guy is" stuff didn't work for Hillary Clinton six months ago, I don't see how it'll help McCain now that Obama's become even more visible to the public than he was in 2007.

[etoilepb.livejournal.com]

At least you live in the "real America!" My Americas -- Boston, New York City, and Arlington, VA -- are all totally fake. I must therefore be some kind of European Communist. Because we all know that nothing valuable comes to this country from the Boston-Washington megalopolis.

[beanarie.livejournal.com]

Funny, too, that the fake America we inhabit predates their genuine version by like a million years or something. Rejecting the thirteen colonies is tres patriotic, dontcha know.

[baileytc.livejournal.com]

An Obama win is not a sure thing at all. The latest AP poll--which is one of only a few taken AFTER last week's debate--finds the race pretty much even.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081022/ap_on_el_pr/ap_poll_presidential_race

[sabra-n.livejournal.com]

Even in terms of total population - electoral votes are another story. That said, after this year's primary? I don't particularly trust the pollsters. No use getting complacent.