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Jan. 22nd, 2004 11:23 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
apocalypsosAlthough come next weekend, I'll probably be linking to the article I write every year for Crescent Blue about the Oscars and who I think will win. Consider yourself warned. ;)
Anyway, who I think will win, and my reasoning ...
Picture, Comedy or Musical:
Bend It Like Beckham
Big Fish
Finding Nemo
Lost in Translation
Love Actually
My guess is ... Lost in Translation. And I don't just say this because it was my favorite movie of last year. Big Fish has a disadvantage in that its main character is essentially a guy you wouldn't want to know in real life, amusing as he might be on screen. Bend It Like Beckham could have come out a decade ago, considering how long it's been since the voters have seen it. (I mean, it is on DVD.) Love Actually is an adorable movie, but it'll suffer because its ensemble cast and multiple storylines aren't always engaging. (Colin, God of Sex, anyone?) This is basically a category between Lost in Translation and Finding Nemo, and animated movies always suffer in this category. Besides, Lost is considered competition for Lord of the Rings for Best Picture at the Oscars, something Nemo isn't.
Actor, Comedy or Musical:
Jack Black School of Rock
Johnny Depp Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Bill Murray Lost in Translation
Jack Nicholson Something’s Gotta Give
Billy Bob Thornton Bad Santa
My guess is ... Bill Murray, in Lost in Translation. Again, I say this not because it was one of my favorite performances of the year. While deserving of their nominations, Jack Black and Billy Bob Thornton are pretty much grateful for them at all, considering the competition. As for Jack Nicholson, Something's Gotta Give is Diane Keaton's movie by far. This category is strictly between Johnny and Bill, and while the press stigma over Johnny's anti-American statements a while back wouldn't be so bad when it comes to the Foreign Press Association, Bill had more of a chance at a win simply for being Sean Penn's major competition for Best Actor at the Oscars. (Not to say I wouldn't like to be proven wrong here. Go, Johnny!)
Actress, Comedy or Musical:
Jamie Lee Curtis Freaky Friday
Scarlett Johansson Lost In Translation
Diane Keaton Something’s Gotta Give
Diane Lane Under the Tuscan Sun
Helen Mirren Calendar Girls
My guess is ... Scarlett Johannson for Lost in Translation. Yes, it's becoming repetitive. Bite me. Diane Lane has no chance. None. If she wins, may I eat the bottle of Smirnoff I'm drinking from. Helen Mirren's chances aren't much better, considering about as many people saw Calendar Girls as did Under the Tuscan Sun. As for Jamie Lee -- whom I'd love to see win anything, much less this category -- her disadvantage is in being in a Disney family flick. It's enough to disgust anyone, even it is exceptional. Meanwhile, you've got Diane Keaton and Scarlett. Diane carries Something’s Gotta Give by simply making you want to be just like her, regardless of the added "when I'm that age." I side with Scarlett because she has two acting nominations this year, and to be quite honest, more people have seen her be wonderful in this movie.
Picture, Drama:
"Cold Mountain";
"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King";
"Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World";
"Mystic River";
"Seabiscuit."
My guess is ... The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. This is Peter Jackson's year. Always a bridesmaid and never a bride, everyone knows LOTR is a true epic. Twenty years from now, some of us will be telling or kids or grandkids how we were first in line for LOTR, and they'll oooh and aaah much like we would about people who saw Star Wars opening weekend. Seabiscuit, while wonderful, is not as fresh in the minds of most voters, and Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World had horrible box office. Cold Mountain will probably suffer from being directed by Mr. English-Patient. To be honest, LOTR only has competition in Mystic River, a movie so good it makes Tim Robbins look like a better actor than he is.
Actress, Drama:
Cate Blanchett, "Veronica Guerin";
Nicole Kidman, "Cold Mountain";
Scarlett Johansson, "Girl With a Pearl Earring";
Charlize Theron, "Monster";
Uma Thurman, "Kill Bill - Vol. 1";
Evan Rachel Wood, "thirteen."
My guess is ... Charlize Theron in Monster. No one saw Veronica Guerin or Girl With a Pearl Earring, and Evan Rachel Wood obviously has many years ahead of her to win. Meanwhile, Uma Thurman was the iconic lead in a movie that's incredibly big-budget-blockbuster for this list. This leaves Nicole and Charlize. Nicole could win an award anymore for performing in a tuna fish commercial, but look at Charlize. Not only is she playing a notorious serial killer, she's playing her as fugly as possible. Hollywood will worship anyone who gains weight and gets a bad haircut for a role. Oh, and did I mention her performance is getting raves just by itself?
Actor, Drama:
Russell Crowe, "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World";
Tom Cruise, "The Last Samurai";
Ben Kingsley, "House of Sand and Fog";
Jude Law, "Cold Mountain";
Sean Penn, "Mystic River."
My guess is ... Sean Penn for Mystic River. Russell's problem is, well, in Hollywood terms, no one saw his movie. I mean, they did, but it's on the same level as House of Sand and Fog, and Ben doesn't have a chance, either. Tom Cruise's performance is good, but it's Tom Cruise In 1870-Something Japan, and you can't help but think that through every moment of the movie. Jude is good in everything, but not good enough here. Which leaves Sean Penn, and whether you think he was riding a fine line between great performance and chewing scenery, the critics adored him.
Supporting Actress:
Maria Bello, "The Cooler";
Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April";
Hope Davis, "American Splendor";
Holly Hunter, "thirteen";
Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain."
My guess is Renee Zellweger in Cold Mountain. Considering she's the only reason I want to see the movie after seeing the trailer, that says a lot. And when her only competition is four tremendous performances in movies that are just getting seen by most audiences, Renee wins.
Supporting Actor:
Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler";
Albert Finney, "Big Fish";
William H. Macy, "Seabiscuit";
Tim Robbins, "Mystic River";
Peter Sarsgaard, "Shattered Glass";
Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai."
My guess is ... Tim Robbins in Mystic River. And I hate to say it, because not only did I adore Ken in The Last Samurai and Alec in The Cooler, but Tim is an infinitely better director than he is an actor. Even so, his performance trumps William H. Macy in Seabiscuit, which couldn't decide whether to entertain you or grate on your nerves (Damn it, Chris Cooper or Jeff Bridges deserved this nomination more!). Shattered Glass wasn't seen by half as many people as it should have, and Albert Finney in Big Fish is amusing, but like I said before, his character is full of it. Tim Robbins is quiet, nervous, and pained in his role, and you can feel it as you watch him.
Director:
Sofia Coppola, "Lost in Translation";
Clint Eastwood, "Mystic River";
Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King";
Anthony Minghella, "Cold Mountain";
Peter Weir, "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World."
My guess is ... Peter Jackson for LOTR. I feel sorry for Sofia Coppola, I really do. She's going to get nominated for an Oscar, which she totally deserves. (Unless, of course, she's acting.) And she's going to be one of three female directors to ever be nominated. Three. Just over seventy-five years, three women. And she's going to be in the same category with Clint Eastwood, equally as good at directing as he is at acting, and the guy who directed LOTR. Talk about being grateful for the award. The thing is, Peter Weir directed a beautiful movie in Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and unfortunately released it around the same time as The Return of the King. Then you have Anthony Minghella, who had the same problem and directed The English Patient, one of the most "Huh?"-worthy Oscar-winning movies of the past few years. Pardon the turn of phrase, but it's a three-man race between Sofia, Clint, and Peter. Sofia and Clint directed near-perfect films, but they didn't direct three great films. All at the same time. With a cast of thousands. And special effects. And a script based on probably the greatest fantasy novels ever. If Peter doesn't win, I will be shocked, dismayed, and pissed as hell.
Well, that's out of my system. And it only took me an hour and a half to write!
Hmph. It was either that or fling flaming pumpkins in the general direction of my temp agency.
Anyway, who I think will win, and my reasoning ...
Picture, Comedy or Musical:
Bend It Like Beckham
Big Fish
Finding Nemo
Lost in Translation
Love Actually
My guess is ... Lost in Translation. And I don't just say this because it was my favorite movie of last year. Big Fish has a disadvantage in that its main character is essentially a guy you wouldn't want to know in real life, amusing as he might be on screen. Bend It Like Beckham could have come out a decade ago, considering how long it's been since the voters have seen it. (I mean, it is on DVD.) Love Actually is an adorable movie, but it'll suffer because its ensemble cast and multiple storylines aren't always engaging. (Colin, God of Sex, anyone?) This is basically a category between Lost in Translation and Finding Nemo, and animated movies always suffer in this category. Besides, Lost is considered competition for Lord of the Rings for Best Picture at the Oscars, something Nemo isn't.
Actor, Comedy or Musical:
Jack Black School of Rock
Johnny Depp Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Bill Murray Lost in Translation
Jack Nicholson Something’s Gotta Give
Billy Bob Thornton Bad Santa
My guess is ... Bill Murray, in Lost in Translation. Again, I say this not because it was one of my favorite performances of the year. While deserving of their nominations, Jack Black and Billy Bob Thornton are pretty much grateful for them at all, considering the competition. As for Jack Nicholson, Something's Gotta Give is Diane Keaton's movie by far. This category is strictly between Johnny and Bill, and while the press stigma over Johnny's anti-American statements a while back wouldn't be so bad when it comes to the Foreign Press Association, Bill had more of a chance at a win simply for being Sean Penn's major competition for Best Actor at the Oscars. (Not to say I wouldn't like to be proven wrong here. Go, Johnny!)
Actress, Comedy or Musical:
Jamie Lee Curtis Freaky Friday
Scarlett Johansson Lost In Translation
Diane Keaton Something’s Gotta Give
Diane Lane Under the Tuscan Sun
Helen Mirren Calendar Girls
My guess is ... Scarlett Johannson for Lost in Translation. Yes, it's becoming repetitive. Bite me. Diane Lane has no chance. None. If she wins, may I eat the bottle of Smirnoff I'm drinking from. Helen Mirren's chances aren't much better, considering about as many people saw Calendar Girls as did Under the Tuscan Sun. As for Jamie Lee -- whom I'd love to see win anything, much less this category -- her disadvantage is in being in a Disney family flick. It's enough to disgust anyone, even it is exceptional. Meanwhile, you've got Diane Keaton and Scarlett. Diane carries Something’s Gotta Give by simply making you want to be just like her, regardless of the added "when I'm that age." I side with Scarlett because she has two acting nominations this year, and to be quite honest, more people have seen her be wonderful in this movie.
Picture, Drama:
"Cold Mountain";
"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King";
"Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World";
"Mystic River";
"Seabiscuit."
My guess is ... The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. This is Peter Jackson's year. Always a bridesmaid and never a bride, everyone knows LOTR is a true epic. Twenty years from now, some of us will be telling or kids or grandkids how we were first in line for LOTR, and they'll oooh and aaah much like we would about people who saw Star Wars opening weekend. Seabiscuit, while wonderful, is not as fresh in the minds of most voters, and Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World had horrible box office. Cold Mountain will probably suffer from being directed by Mr. English-Patient. To be honest, LOTR only has competition in Mystic River, a movie so good it makes Tim Robbins look like a better actor than he is.
Actress, Drama:
Cate Blanchett, "Veronica Guerin";
Nicole Kidman, "Cold Mountain";
Scarlett Johansson, "Girl With a Pearl Earring";
Charlize Theron, "Monster";
Uma Thurman, "Kill Bill - Vol. 1";
Evan Rachel Wood, "thirteen."
My guess is ... Charlize Theron in Monster. No one saw Veronica Guerin or Girl With a Pearl Earring, and Evan Rachel Wood obviously has many years ahead of her to win. Meanwhile, Uma Thurman was the iconic lead in a movie that's incredibly big-budget-blockbuster for this list. This leaves Nicole and Charlize. Nicole could win an award anymore for performing in a tuna fish commercial, but look at Charlize. Not only is she playing a notorious serial killer, she's playing her as fugly as possible. Hollywood will worship anyone who gains weight and gets a bad haircut for a role. Oh, and did I mention her performance is getting raves just by itself?
Actor, Drama:
Russell Crowe, "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World";
Tom Cruise, "The Last Samurai";
Ben Kingsley, "House of Sand and Fog";
Jude Law, "Cold Mountain";
Sean Penn, "Mystic River."
My guess is ... Sean Penn for Mystic River. Russell's problem is, well, in Hollywood terms, no one saw his movie. I mean, they did, but it's on the same level as House of Sand and Fog, and Ben doesn't have a chance, either. Tom Cruise's performance is good, but it's Tom Cruise In 1870-Something Japan, and you can't help but think that through every moment of the movie. Jude is good in everything, but not good enough here. Which leaves Sean Penn, and whether you think he was riding a fine line between great performance and chewing scenery, the critics adored him.
Supporting Actress:
Maria Bello, "The Cooler";
Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April";
Hope Davis, "American Splendor";
Holly Hunter, "thirteen";
Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain."
My guess is Renee Zellweger in Cold Mountain. Considering she's the only reason I want to see the movie after seeing the trailer, that says a lot. And when her only competition is four tremendous performances in movies that are just getting seen by most audiences, Renee wins.
Supporting Actor:
Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler";
Albert Finney, "Big Fish";
William H. Macy, "Seabiscuit";
Tim Robbins, "Mystic River";
Peter Sarsgaard, "Shattered Glass";
Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai."
My guess is ... Tim Robbins in Mystic River. And I hate to say it, because not only did I adore Ken in The Last Samurai and Alec in The Cooler, but Tim is an infinitely better director than he is an actor. Even so, his performance trumps William H. Macy in Seabiscuit, which couldn't decide whether to entertain you or grate on your nerves (Damn it, Chris Cooper or Jeff Bridges deserved this nomination more!). Shattered Glass wasn't seen by half as many people as it should have, and Albert Finney in Big Fish is amusing, but like I said before, his character is full of it. Tim Robbins is quiet, nervous, and pained in his role, and you can feel it as you watch him.
Director:
Sofia Coppola, "Lost in Translation";
Clint Eastwood, "Mystic River";
Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King";
Anthony Minghella, "Cold Mountain";
Peter Weir, "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World."
My guess is ... Peter Jackson for LOTR. I feel sorry for Sofia Coppola, I really do. She's going to get nominated for an Oscar, which she totally deserves. (Unless, of course, she's acting.) And she's going to be one of three female directors to ever be nominated. Three. Just over seventy-five years, three women. And she's going to be in the same category with Clint Eastwood, equally as good at directing as he is at acting, and the guy who directed LOTR. Talk about being grateful for the award. The thing is, Peter Weir directed a beautiful movie in Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and unfortunately released it around the same time as The Return of the King. Then you have Anthony Minghella, who had the same problem and directed The English Patient, one of the most "Huh?"-worthy Oscar-winning movies of the past few years. Pardon the turn of phrase, but it's a three-man race between Sofia, Clint, and Peter. Sofia and Clint directed near-perfect films, but they didn't direct three great films. All at the same time. With a cast of thousands. And special effects. And a script based on probably the greatest fantasy novels ever. If Peter doesn't win, I will be shocked, dismayed, and pissed as hell.
Well, that's out of my system. And it only took me an hour and a half to write!
Hmph. It was either that or fling flaming pumpkins in the general direction of my temp agency.
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Date: 2004-01-24 06:53 pm (UTC)Temp agency?