(no subject)

[apocalypsos]

So USAToday.com has an article about the possible Best Actress nominees. And because I'm such a slavering idiot when it comes to Oscar season (wheeeeeeee!), I'm going to try and see how good my guessing is at the top six categories. *rubs hands together*

Best Picture

Finding Neverland
Sideways
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The Incredibles
The Passion

Okay, that last one is a stab in the the dark, but I'm positive the first three are going to get nominated and I'm hoping with good reason to believe that The Incredibles might make the top five, considering it's hit every Best Of 2004 list I've seen so far. Finding Neverland has already won the National Board of Review for Best Picture, Sideways has already gotten nominated for Best Picture at the Independent Spirit Awards, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind got pretty much the best reviews of the year. And I put The Passion up there because, well, as much as I might think of it as a very beautifully filmed two-and-a-half hour snuff film, it was still pretty good. (Of course, Fahrenheit 9/11 has a shot of getting up there, but I imagine only if Bush pulls off something galactically stupid in the next month or so. And The Aviator or A Very Long Engagement might, too, since I didn't really pick an epic and Oscar likes epics. All of those, by the way, I'd switch for The Passion.)

Best Actor

Jamie Foxx, Ray
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Liam Neeson, Kinsey
Jim Carrey, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Yes, I put Jim Carrey up there. Deal. The man can actually act like a real, non-spastic person when he tries, and he was heartbreaking in that movie. Jamie Foxx, I think, is not only a lock for a nomination, but has the best chance for the award. And the best part? I think Johnny Depp's his best competition. I don't think Johnny will win, though, but it's still nice that he's got a better chance than last year. (Although now I want to see Pirates of the Caribbean again. :))

Best Actress

Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full Of Grace
Audrey Tautou, A Very Long Engagement

Okay, I'm going with these five over some of the ones listed in the article, even though I've only seen one of the performances in the category. I'm positive Kate Winslet's going to get nominated, and I'd lean on Finding Neverland only because it's more recent, has made more money, and features the typical "Watch me die gorgeously!" that Hollywood likes. Annette Bening hits a personally sensitive subject in Being Julia by playing an actress trying to work as she ages. Oscar likes nominating actresses who wash off their makeup and just get down and dirty, but the closest thing they've got this year is Imelda Staunton. Catalina Sandino Moreno is pretty much getting raves from everybody who's seen that movie, and as for Audrey Tautou, I think Hollywood really wants to give her a nomination after Amelie.

Best Supporting Actress

Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Regina King, Ray
Vanessa Redgrave, Kinsey
Kyra Sedgwick, The Woodsman

Those last two are a guess, but I'm pretty positive on the first three nominations. I put Vanessa Redgrave on the list even though her part was only a few minutes long because every review for Kinsey I've seen mentions her part with glowing praise and if Judi Dench can win an Oscar for eight minutes of work, I don't see why Vanessa Redgrave can't at least get nominated for two as long as they're two really, really good minutes. Kyra's a shot in the dark, though -- I had a really hard time coming up with supporting actress roles I thought were good enough.

Best Supporting Actor

Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
Clive Owen, Closer
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Topher Grace, In Good Company

Can you tell I was kind of running out of options towards the end? And also, I cannot tell you how amusing I find it as someone who used to watch Wings not only that Thomas Haden Church will get nominated (he and Peter Sarsgaard are pretty much the locks in the category), but that he's got an excellent chance of winning? I'm not sure if Jamie Foxx will get nominated for this and Ray, since he was definitely better in Ray and Collateral fell apart after the bar fight scene, but what the hell? (To be perfectly honest and in all seriousness, if I were picking these nominations according to what I wanted rather than realistically, I'd put Alfred Molina for Spider-Man 2, because seriously, he made that movie.)

Best Director

Martin Scorcese, The Aviator
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Jean-Pierre Jeunet, A Very Long Engagement

Hollywood really, really, REALLY wants to give Scorcese an Oscar, and as long as The Aviator doesn't suck on toast, I think he won't only get nominated, he'll win. And considering they once gave Kevin Costner a Best Director Oscar over him, I am not going to argue with it at all.

Considering my usual rate of good guesses, if I got eighty percent of those right, I'd be impressed with myself.

EDIT: The Golden Globe nominations come out on Monday?! Sheesh.

Comments

[derryderrydown.livejournal.com]

I can't help feeling that Peter O'Toole agreeing to accept the honorary Oscar was tied to him getting the Best Supporting Actor this year for Troy...

[apocalypsos.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he got nominated for it (and I'd switch out Topher Grace in that instance) since he was the best thing in the movie, although he does have the disadvantage of Troy sucking like a Hoover a great deal of the time.

[jedusor.livejournal.com]

Honestly, the best part of Troy by far was the scene with Peter O'Toole in Achilles's tent, and that was pretty much the only part of that movie taken directly from The Iliad. I think he's very likely to get a nomination.

[ingole.livejournal.com]

I love Cate Blanchett to pieces. I was so upset when Gwyneth friggin' Paltrow took home Cate's Oscar.

[apocalypsos.livejournal.com]

And that was the year Cate wore that gorgeous dress with the flowers-and-hummingbird details on the back while Gwyneth wore that lame pink dress that didn't even fit properly. Gyah.

[sabra-n.livejournal.com]

Well, you know they'll probably shunt The Incredibles into the Best Animated Picture category and leave it there. *sigh* Because everyone knows animated films, like foreign films, shouldn't be judged in the same category as the oh-so-superior American/live-action variety.

I've heard Kate Winslet's role in Finding Neverland being called supporting. Don't know how much that will affect things.

They'd better not forget about the existence of Eternal Sunshine. And that's all I have to say about that.

Oh, and Peter Sarsgaard rocks my socks. I haven't seen Kinsey yet, but he was my favorite part of Garden State.

-blue

[apocalypsos.livejournal.com]

If they call her role in Finding Neverland supporting, I could buy it, but they'd better nominate her for Eternal Sunshine, too. I still say that's one of the most realistic romantic relationships I've ever seen on screen.

The thing with The Incredibles is that last year, there were a lot of people disappointed that Finding Nemo didn't get a Best Picture nomination as well as Best Animated. What I'm really hoping is that that feeling carried over from last year when voters went to see The Incredibles. (I think it might also help that The Incredibles just came out, while last year, Finding Nemo came out in the summertime. Academy voters have short memories, which sometimes hurts and sometimes helps, depending on the movie.)

Damn straight they'd better not forget about Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. What I think works in its favor is that with all of the angst over possible piracy of screeners, Eternal Sunshine is already out on DVD. People might not have seen it in theaters, but now they can rent it for a few bucks if they can't get a screener.

[sabra-n.livejournal.com]

If they forget about Eternal Sunshine, I'll...I'll scream and yell. Or something. I adore that movie, and its main coupling rang true in ways almost every other on-screen pairing I've seen can only aspire to. Amazing how such a bizarre movie can have something that feels so real at its center. Brilliant, wonderful movie.

*sigh* And once again we're into the classic Oscars philosophy of giving people awards to make up for not giving them awards before. Which, in turn, screws someone else over, thus continuing the great Circle of Stupidity. I'm not saying The Incredibles doesn't deserve a nom, but the general pattern annoys me. Just award people for what they've been nominated for. Oy.

-blue

[ktnb]

I agree that Johnny Depp will be nominated for Best Actor, and I think he actually has a good shot at winning, not just because he was good in Finding Neverland, but also because the Academy owes him from last year for giving the Oscar to Sean Penn (who won because the Academy owed him from 2002 for giving the Oscar to Denzel Washington...it's a viscious cycle. *g*)

[apocalypsos.livejournal.com]

I think Johnny's problem -- and God knows I love him to pieces and want him to win -- is that Jamie Foxx's performance is almost perfect. Johnny's his best competition, what with owing him an Oscar for last year and the fact that his performances including this one are always marvelous, but at no time during Ray do you question that Jamie Foxx IS Ray Charles.

I literally do think the category is between those two, though, with Paul Giamatti (who was amazing in Sideways) as a dark horse. Whoever else gets nominated for Best Actor had better just be happy to be there.

[mice.livejournal.com]

You need to consider the Life Aquatic. Wes Anderson's films have been snubbed majorly once, and barely touched on the second time around (not counting Bottle Rocket). Everyone knows that last year, Murray got burned. The Life Aquatic is something he's going to own.

And, really, Depp was a supporting actor for POTC and if they would have listed him as such, he had a good shot of winning over both Tim Robbins and Alec Baldwin.

[opportunemoment.livejournal.com]

Depp was a supporting actor for POTC and if they would have listed him as such, he had a good shot of winning

... huh. I never thought of that, but it's a really good point. Hm.