(no subject)

[apocalypsos]

So USAToday.com has an article about the possible Best Actress nominees. And because I'm such a slavering idiot when it comes to Oscar season (wheeeeeeee!), I'm going to try and see how good my guessing is at the top six categories. *rubs hands together*

Best Picture

Finding Neverland
Sideways
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The Incredibles
The Passion

Okay, that last one is a stab in the the dark, but I'm positive the first three are going to get nominated and I'm hoping with good reason to believe that The Incredibles might make the top five, considering it's hit every Best Of 2004 list I've seen so far. Finding Neverland has already won the National Board of Review for Best Picture, Sideways has already gotten nominated for Best Picture at the Independent Spirit Awards, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind got pretty much the best reviews of the year. And I put The Passion up there because, well, as much as I might think of it as a very beautifully filmed two-and-a-half hour snuff film, it was still pretty good. (Of course, Fahrenheit 9/11 has a shot of getting up there, but I imagine only if Bush pulls off something galactically stupid in the next month or so. And The Aviator or A Very Long Engagement might, too, since I didn't really pick an epic and Oscar likes epics. All of those, by the way, I'd switch for The Passion.)

Best Actor

Jamie Foxx, Ray
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Liam Neeson, Kinsey
Jim Carrey, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Yes, I put Jim Carrey up there. Deal. The man can actually act like a real, non-spastic person when he tries, and he was heartbreaking in that movie. Jamie Foxx, I think, is not only a lock for a nomination, but has the best chance for the award. And the best part? I think Johnny Depp's his best competition. I don't think Johnny will win, though, but it's still nice that he's got a better chance than last year. (Although now I want to see Pirates of the Caribbean again. :))

Best Actress

Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full Of Grace
Audrey Tautou, A Very Long Engagement

Okay, I'm going with these five over some of the ones listed in the article, even though I've only seen one of the performances in the category. I'm positive Kate Winslet's going to get nominated, and I'd lean on Finding Neverland only because it's more recent, has made more money, and features the typical "Watch me die gorgeously!" that Hollywood likes. Annette Bening hits a personally sensitive subject in Being Julia by playing an actress trying to work as she ages. Oscar likes nominating actresses who wash off their makeup and just get down and dirty, but the closest thing they've got this year is Imelda Staunton. Catalina Sandino Moreno is pretty much getting raves from everybody who's seen that movie, and as for Audrey Tautou, I think Hollywood really wants to give her a nomination after Amelie.

Best Supporting Actress

Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Regina King, Ray
Vanessa Redgrave, Kinsey
Kyra Sedgwick, The Woodsman

Those last two are a guess, but I'm pretty positive on the first three nominations. I put Vanessa Redgrave on the list even though her part was only a few minutes long because every review for Kinsey I've seen mentions her part with glowing praise and if Judi Dench can win an Oscar for eight minutes of work, I don't see why Vanessa Redgrave can't at least get nominated for two as long as they're two really, really good minutes. Kyra's a shot in the dark, though -- I had a really hard time coming up with supporting actress roles I thought were good enough.

Best Supporting Actor

Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
Clive Owen, Closer
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Topher Grace, In Good Company

Can you tell I was kind of running out of options towards the end? And also, I cannot tell you how amusing I find it as someone who used to watch Wings not only that Thomas Haden Church will get nominated (he and Peter Sarsgaard are pretty much the locks in the category), but that he's got an excellent chance of winning? I'm not sure if Jamie Foxx will get nominated for this and Ray, since he was definitely better in Ray and Collateral fell apart after the bar fight scene, but what the hell? (To be perfectly honest and in all seriousness, if I were picking these nominations according to what I wanted rather than realistically, I'd put Alfred Molina for Spider-Man 2, because seriously, he made that movie.)

Best Director

Martin Scorcese, The Aviator
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Jean-Pierre Jeunet, A Very Long Engagement

Hollywood really, really, REALLY wants to give Scorcese an Oscar, and as long as The Aviator doesn't suck on toast, I think he won't only get nominated, he'll win. And considering they once gave Kevin Costner a Best Director Oscar over him, I am not going to argue with it at all.

Considering my usual rate of good guesses, if I got eighty percent of those right, I'd be impressed with myself.

EDIT: The Golden Globe nominations come out on Monday?! Sheesh.

Comments

[apocalypsos.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he got nominated for it (and I'd switch out Topher Grace in that instance) since he was the best thing in the movie, although he does have the disadvantage of Troy sucking like a Hoover a great deal of the time.

[jedusor.livejournal.com]

Honestly, the best part of Troy by far was the scene with Peter O'Toole in Achilles's tent, and that was pretty much the only part of that movie taken directly from The Iliad. I think he's very likely to get a nomination.