Every year, I try to guess the Oscar nominees.

[apocalypsos]

So granted, I haven't actually seen all of these movies yet, but I'm enough of an Oscars junkie to know where their nation usually goes. And okay, Valenti's got that idiotic screener ban that he'll repeal if he knows what's good for him. But this is assuming that the Academy nominates the way I've gotten used to them voting, so here goes. (Only the major awards, though. 'Cause, dude, I could be here all night. Seriously.)

Best Director

Clint Eastwood -- Mystic River
Sofia Coppola -- Lost in Translation
Peter Jackson -- Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini -- American Splendor
Edward Zwick -- The Last Samurai

My thoughts: I think anybody with more than three brain cells knows this is Peter Jackson's year. If they've not already engraved his name on there, I'm surprised. Coppola and Eastwood are locks for two of the other nominations -- Lost in Translation is a beautifully filmed piece of art and Mystic River is some of Eastwood's best work ever as a director. As for the other two nominations, I'm trying to make an educated guess, although if Niki Caro (Whale Rider) made it onto that list, I'd love it since she produced an incredibly heartfelt movie. (That speech of Pai's? *sniffles*)

Best Supporting Actor

Ian McKellen -- Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Elijah Wood -- Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Andy Serkis -- Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Jeff Bridges -- Seabiscuit
Johnny Depp -- Pirates of the Caribbean

My thoughts: The great thing about everybody having fits last year because Andy wasn't nominated is that this year, when Gollum's part in the story gets That Much Juicier, he's got a much better chance and the Academy has seen that his nomination's got huge support. And by the way, having seen this year's crop of supporting male performances, I'm starting to think that Johnny might actually have a shot. Yeah, he won't win, but I'm getting that impression. (And yeah, I know that Elijah's a lead. I'll explain my reasoning when I get to the lead categories. Oh, and if not Elijah, then I'd guess Sean Astin. This category is going to be stacked with LOTR actors.)

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Clarkson -- The Station Agent
Holly Hunter -- Thirteen
Keisha Castle-Hughes -- Whale Rider
Hope Davis -- American Splendor
Miranda Otto -- Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

My thoughts: Okay, I saved Miranda for last because I was seriously trying to make sure she'd fit. Patricia, Holly and Hope are pretty much definites. If the screener ban stands, Keisha's got a shot at this category regardless of the fact that she's the lead because she's a kid and because the company which produced Whale Rider isn't held to MPAA rules, which means it can send out all the bloody screeners it wants. If Keisha doesn't make this category, I would guess that Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River) or Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen) would take her place. But for now, my Miranda nomination stands. (I'd say Liv, but considering Eowyn's storyline, I'd rather place my bets on Miranda.)

Best Actress

Gwyneth Paltrow -- Sylvia
Scarlett Johannson -- Lost in Translation
Cate Blanchett -- Veronica Guerin
Julia Roberts -- Mona Lisa Smile
* Helen Mirren -- Calendar Girls
* Julie Walters -- Calendar Girls
* Nicole Kidman -- Cold Mountain

My thoughts: I firmly believe -- and this is having seen only one of the performances -- that the first four performances on that list are locks. Scarlett's amazing and ethereal, and the other three, good or not, are Oscar-bait performances. As for the fifth nomination, if Nicole does well, it'll probably go to her -- however, the Calendar Girls trailer makes me think it's possible Julie or Helen might get nominated, thereby being the quirky light nomination in a category full of heavies.

Best Actor

Viggo Mortensen -- Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Bill Murray -- Lost in Translation
Paul Giamatti -- American Splendor
Sean Penn -- Mystic River
Tom Cruise -- The Last Samurai

My thoughts: If this is the way the nominations turn out, Bill Murray will win. I have no doubt. Paul's nom will be a happy-to-be-here pick if I've ever seen one, Sean's performance was absolutely heartbreaking but still, if Tom doesn't make this category then Russell Crowe (Master and Commander) will and I don't think he'll win, either, and Viggo ... look, the Academy is stupid. If Viggo gets nominated (and I'm pretty sure he will be), it will be because it's "Return of the King" and he plays the King. Yeah, idiotic. I know. If the Academy has grown a brain cell or two lately, Elijah will end up here, and trust me, I'm hopin', but I know those Academy bastards and how they operate.

Best Picture

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Mystic River
Whale Rider
The Last Samurai

My thoughts: Duh. Just duh.


Now let's see how right I am come Oscar time. ;)

Comments

[deadspiders.livejournal.com]

Andy Serkis, as much as he deserves ten millions awards for his role in LoTR, won't be nominated. I read that they wanted to, but because his character's CGI, he won't be eligible. They recognise that his performance geared the animation, blah blah, but they can't get around the technicality. (Which I think is pathetic, because I can understand strict guidelines for protocol in war or the law, but awards shows? Does anyone care?)

[apocalypsos.livejournal.com]

The main reason I tossed him in there, and I know it sounds utterly stupid when I put it like this, is the screener ban.

If Valenti could possibly have chosen a worse way to piss off the entire Academy, I can't think of any. The screener ban isn't going to completely knock independent film performances out of contention, but it sure as hell is going to make it difficult for them to win.

Like I said, this category's going to be stacked with LOTR actors. The supporting actor performances this year, with the exception of Johnny and Jeff, have been less than stellar. (And Jeff might not get nominated because Oscar voters tend to 'forget' summer films. Fortunately, 'Pirates' is unforgettable this year, and it would make for a great "Fuck you, Mr. Valenti.") If anybody gets an acting award for LOTR, it'll be here. (Another reason why I think Elijah will get nominated for supporting -- he has no chance in lead.)

I know he was ineligible last year, but I could so see them pulling strings this year to get him nominated as sort of a (yet another) "Fuck you, Mr. Valenti." (Which is small revenge and a crappy way to get him there, but I'm past picky.) I'm starting to get the impression the Academy would love to find a bigger way to "protest", and this is probably their best category to do it in. "Well, jeez, Valenti, without independent film screeners, look at all we have to nominate -- Johnny Depp and a CGI character." *whistles innocently*