apocalypsos: (sayid)
[personal profile] apocalypsos
So I was checking out the spoilers chat on E! Online this morning for Lost spoilers, and she gave a few spoilers as to who is going to die. So now I've been trying to think about who could possibly be on the chopping block.

What Kristin has already spoiled us on:

-- The one to die will be a male cast member. (Understandable, since there are only four main female characters, and that's not evencounting Rose and Danielle. Also, I could have sworn she said it was an adult, which is why I didn't bother with Walt.)
-- When she said the character would be one of the biggest, she was not being obtusely literal like she is a lot of the time. (So it wasn't a veiled Hurley reference. But it still doesn't mean he's off the chopping block.)
-- Charlie won't be the one who bites it. (Which, since the writers have said the same thing about Dom Monaghan ... well, yeah, like I believe anything to be a solid truth from these people. ;P)
-- Jack won't be the one to deliver Claire's baby. (Which was in the spoilers for this week. More on that later in this.)
-- And most importantly for this speculation, The ultimate reason for his death is the ultimate betrayal from someone he believes to be his trusted ally.

So, this is where I speculate on each male character's chances ...

Charlie

Yes, I'm putting Charlie on this list. I know the writers and Kristin have cleared him, but like I'm really think they're going to tell the whole truth on something like this. Is it possible the writers would fudge their intentions with Dom to the fans? Considering they were planning on killing Jack in the pilot after setting him up as the main character ... yeah, it's a possibility.

Charlie trusts ...:
1. Claire -- Could Claire betray Charlie? It's highly unlikely in my eyes, with only one distinct thing gumming up the works: Claire's amnesia. If Claire is faking it, or suddenly remembers something and doesn't bother to tell him, that could turn into trouble later on.
2. Hurley -- At this point, I can't see Hurley betraying anyone, much less Charlie, but what we know of what's coming up in his episode this week does show that he can keep a secret. (Even if that secret hasn't really harmed anyone so far for not knowing it.)
3. Locke -- Well, Locke's never been the most honest of the castaways. *points to wheelchair* So while he's trustworthy with a lot of the castaways, he could betray anyone at any time.
4. Jack -- Jack did help him get weaned off heroin, but then again, they've had their disagreements as well.

Why I think it could be Charlie: Well, hell, who'd see that coming?
Why I don't: The writers say no. Kristin says no. And that spoiler about Claire's baby honestly makes me think that Charlie will be the one who ends up delivering Claire's baby. (In which case, poor Claire. ;P)

Jack

Oh, Jack's so way up on this list. Hey, he's the designated HERO. He's got the decoder ring and everything.

Jack trusts ...:
1. Kate -- Why, I have no idea. A peaches-and-cream complexion, big pretty eyes, and a tendency to strip down to her non-matching panties and bra does not a trustworthy person make, especially with that criminal record and the murder confession and all.
2. Sayid -- Understandable, since Sayid's given no one a reason not to trust him other than Sawyer, and that's only when he's got slivers of bamboo on hand. But then again, it'd come as a pretty good shock if Sayid betrayed anyone.
3. Hurley -- Again, not very suspicious, ever.

Why I think it could be Jack: They were certainly all ready to throw him to the wolves in the first episode. Why not now?
Why I don't: Whoever will be our HERO now? *whimper* Okay, seriously? He's the only doctor they have, and even with Sun the natural healer and Locke the mountain man, I'm not sure the writers would give up his medical expertise.

Sawyer

Okay, first you'd have to find a trusted ally for Sawyer. Oh, wait ...

Sawyer trusts ...:
1. Kate -- Well, that's just asking for trouble right there. And I don't even think he trusts her.

Why I think it could be Sawyer: They barely ever use him for anything other than fights and sexual appeal. (Not that I'm complaining, mind you.) His only trusted ally is Kate, which is basically shooting yourself in the foot. Everybody could get their stuff back without fisticuffs. And telling Jack about his father's bar confession would make for perfect deathbed confession material.
Why I don't: Er, we still haven't gotten full-frontal yet?

Jin:

Well, since he turned his back on Sun, does he honestly trust anyone anymore?

Jin trusts ...:
1. Hurley -- And that's a stretch.
2. Charlie -- That's even more of a stretch, and last time he took a walk with Charlie, Ethan whapped him in the chest with a big rock.

Why I think it could be Jin: Um, maybe he'll trust Sun again by the end of the season?
Why I don't: Well, really. The man makes Sawyer look like a social butterfly in the trust department.

Boone:

Oh, Boone. Poor, stupid, pretty Boone.

Boone trusts ...:
I'd make a list for this one, but honestly, Boone trusts everyone who's not nailing his stepsister. So basically, everyone but Sayid. (Almost.) Heck, he even still trusts Shannon in his own stupid, stupid way.

Why I think it could be Boone: Because Boone's level of trust on the island is just sad. He's kind of asking for it, really. And can't you just see Locke turning around and doing something that bites Boone right in the ass?
Why I don't: He'd be WAY too easy, with a spoiler like that.

Sayid

Sayid has excellent judgment in other people. Of course, it'd be just like this show for that to get him killed.

Sayid trusts ...:
1. Kate -- But only because he doesn't know she's a criminal.
2. Shannon -- Say what you will about how bitchy Shannon is, but much like Cordelia Chase, she's not so much a big liar (well, aside from sleeping with Boone) as she is bluntly honest. Paired up with being spoiled rotten, it seems less trustworthy than it might turn out to be.
3. Jack -- Would Jack betray Sayid? He'd have to have a good goddamn reason.
4. Hurley -- Trust Hurley. It's the new island fad. ;)

Why I think it could be Sayid: If anything is going to screw him up here, it's his relationship with Kate. And frankly, I love Sayid, but if they're going to bitchslap Kate in the face with the consequences of her lying, this would be a good way to do it.
Why I don't: Because hundreds of thousands of fangirls would storm the Lost studios and beat JJ Abrams senseless.

Hurley:

If they kill Hurley, I'm not going to be a happy camper. I don't think that needs to be confirmed.

Hurley trusts ...:
1. Charlie -- But at this point, I really don't see Charlie betraying anyone. Well, except to protect Claire, in which case ... eep. Don't do it, Charlie!
2. Jack -- Again, Jack would have to have good reason to betray Hurley, of all people.
3. Jin -- I think now that Jin doesn't have Sun to depend on, he's going to get more into cultivating his friendships, and I could see him doing this with Hurley. I don't know why he'd have cause to betray Hurley ... okay, maybe for Sun. Which, if he does ... bah to women.

Why I think it could be Hurley: He's not one of the two main characters. He's not one of the "pretty people". He's spent so much time being friendly to all of the castaways that it'd be a hell of a shock if he were betrayed by anyone.
Why I don't: Because I'm in denial.

Michael

You know, I do like Michael and his fumbling parenting style, but I think Michael's got a good shot on the chopping block here. Hell, look at who he trusts.

Michael trusts ...:
1. Walt -- Could Walt betray him? Hello?! *waves hands frantically at burned raft ruins*
2. Locke -- Sure, he trusts him for saving his son, but then again, Locke's looking for disciples and Walt's awfully handy ...
3. Jack -- Oh, everybody trusts Jack. It's like a curse.
4. Sawyer -- Well, he hasn't given him any reason not to trust him. Any besides being a complete ass, anyway. He did help him with the raft, which had to score him points. And it would affect Sawyer deeply that he got some kid's father killed with his sordid childhood.

Why I think it could be Michael: His Bad Father points may come back to haunt him. And his budding friendship with Jin might get his ass kicked later.
Why I don't: Oh, the black guy always dies in these situations, and it's such a cliche. Besides, who wants to see Walt raised by Locke? *eye roll, shudder*

Locke

Locke trusts ...:
1. Boone -- But then, he does all of Boone's thinking for him, so ... *shrug*
2. Jack -- Yes, old Jack "I Never Lied to Anyone EVER" Shepard.
3. Charlie -- Who could betray him for Claire at the drop of a hat.
4. Kate -- Like Sayid, he doesn't know about her past. If he did, well, God only knows how he'd react.

Why I think it could be Locke: Uh, because he scares the writers?
Why I don't: They've got him set up as this great, creepy shaman guy. He's slowly getting together a group of loyal followers who trust him implicitly, even while he continues to occasionally trick them and mislead them. I'll go on record right now and say that if he does die, I'll eat my hat. And when I say that, I mean I'll take a picture of me wearing a roast beef sandwich on my head, and then I'll eat the sandwich. (Also, I sincerely think that whoever is busy delivering Claire's baby will be way too occupied to croak, and he's the only other one aside from Charlie that I could picture doing it. But not literally, because EWW. And wouldn't that be scary, Mr. "I'm one with the island" delivering that kid? Gyah.)


So, that's my ramble. Just had to get it out of my head. :)

EDIT: Ack! I almost forgot tonight was the TAR premiere! *smacks self* Bad TARfly! No Phil swoonage!

Date: 2005-03-01 04:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] foenix.livejournal.com
I don't think it will be Sawyer, because he's too much in the middle of conflicts, great and small, with everyone. As a writer, I say it would suck to loose that dynamic.

Same for Locke, really. He's turning out to be too much of an important figure. But on the other hand, that would throw some monkeywrenches into his followers ideas. But then everyone will likely live happily ever after.

And when it comes to Kristin's spoilers, I don't discount just because it's obvious.

J

Date: 2005-03-01 04:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tv-elf.livejournal.com
Sadly, I'm pretty sure it'll be Hurley. She said it would be a big ep for that character, and we'd be sad at the result... I don't want it to be Hurley. But...

Date: 2005-03-01 04:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] nycdeb.livejournal.com
if it's Hurley, I will cry.

A lot.

Date: 2005-03-01 05:05 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tv-elf.livejournal.com
Same here.... I will probably read comments about it before it airs to lessen the pain.

Date: 2005-03-01 05:06 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] drewbeartx.livejournal.com
I really am afraid that it'll be Hurley.

He's likeable, but not OMGHAWT!! He's fat and not ashamed of it (a deadly sin as far as Hollywood goes). He's the one who's kept things running smoothly. He was the one who organized the plane's food and water, the census and arranged the golf tourneysp; he appears to be the only one besides Jin who fishes, he tries to smooth down potential conflicts (sending Sayid to talk with Charlie, getting stuff from Sawyer without a confrontation), and he generally gets along with everyone.

In other words, he's more likely to reduce conflict and strife than cause it, and therefore must go.

::spits on producers::

I just hope that I'm wrong.

Date: 2005-03-01 05:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] callie-chan.livejournal.com
Add to that the perhaps foreshadowing death of his Walkman?

I'm hoping it's Jack or Boone, because out of all the potentials those are the ones I care least about. But the signs sure seem to be pointing to Hurley...

-Callisto

Date: 2005-03-01 10:16 pm (UTC)
fyrdrakken: (Smartass)
From: [personal profile] fyrdrakken
Crap. Crappity crap crap. You're right in that from a writers' standpoing, Hurley would be handy to get rid of. (And I agree with that comment above, that the -- Walkman? Diskman? MP3 player? -- may be foreshadowing. And I don't like it.)

Date: 2005-03-02 03:06 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] foresthouse.livejournal.com
Oh my, your icon is so true!

Date: 2005-03-02 04:35 pm (UTC)
fyrdrakken: (X-ray Stiletto)
From: [personal profile] fyrdrakken
Hah, thanks! (Made it last week after the tone of some of the post-episode dissection got to me.)

Date: 2005-03-01 05:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] drewbeartx.livejournal.com
I hope that it's Boone. As you said, he's far too trusting of everything about the island, almost to the point of being blasé about it. He actually trusts Locke, the guy who knocked him out, tied him up, and forcibly drugged him!

Besides, it would give more motivation and guilt to Shannon, who IMO, is much more interesting than Boone. I like the Cordelia Chase style bitchy/brutal honesty.

Date: 2005-03-01 05:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yahtzee63.livejournal.com
I think it's Boone. He's really the only character who trusts anyone to an extreme level (save maybe Walt, and no way will they kill the kid!) I also think they're leading up to showing that Locke is dangerous, and how better to demonstrate that?

Date: 2005-03-01 05:46 pm (UTC)
valerie: (hot boys of lost)
From: [personal profile] valerie
I'm hoping it's Boone. He seems a little less... layered than the other characters, and that could be a bad thing.

Do I think it'll be him? Probably not, unfortunately.

And if you're not swooning over Phil, can I do double swooning to make up for it?

Date: 2005-03-01 06:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hiddenw.livejournal.com
Ooh, I forget about the TAR premiere. Thanks for the reminder. Now to begin this crazy dance once again...

Date: 2005-03-01 06:07 pm (UTC)
akacat: A cute cat holding a computer mice by the cord. (Where can I download a life?)
From: [personal profile] akacat
If it's Hurley, I'm going to quit watching the show.

Which honestly wouldn't be an entirely bad thing because a) I'll have gotten his backstory, which I've been waiting for b) I've got too much TV to watch on Wednesday and c) I'm watching too many non-cable shows.

Date: 2005-03-01 06:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ficangel.livejournal.com
Is it sad that I'm all, "They can't kill my OTC! My OTC doesn't have time to do the whole arc culminating in a rain of redemption! HA!" Fine. I accept that.

I was leaning towards Boone to begin with, but your post makes me wonder hard if it's not Michael. A cliche, yeah, but this show seems to be making a point of breaking the cliches you'd expect them to fulfill (Sayid, for one, in contrast with this season's 24) and fulfilling the ones you'd expect them to break, so I can see them going there. Especially if he's betrayed by Walt the sociopath in training.

Date: 2005-03-01 07:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] miggy.livejournal.com
I'm hoping it's Boone, but ever since I heard about a Big Scooby Lost Death, I've been thinking Hurley.

(I'm really, really hoping it's Boone.)

Date: 2005-03-01 08:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] diannelamerc.livejournal.com
I'm hanging on to the thought that it's Boone, and justifying it largely from a writing POV: Having covered the ground with Shannon and their history, what else is there to do with him? His identity was basically "Shannon's bitch". Now he's Locke's, I guess. But still, he's not actually needed in either role.

Plus, what better way to freak Shannon (since they seem determined to keep her) and/or set her off on changing her life/character/ and/or story arc?

Boone. Definitely Boone. Or maybe Jack.


And also because it can't be Hurley! It can'titcan'titcan't*poutwhinethrowtempertantrum*!!!!!!!

Date: 2005-03-01 09:05 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cimarosa.livejournal.com
I don't think it'll be Jin because I think they once also said it'd be a 'well loved character', and the only person that loves Jin is me. As far as main characters go, he's hardly one of the 'big' ones. Unless they seriously crank up his involvement before the finale his death will hardly be climactic for anyone.

I hope it's Jack. I really hope it's Jack. The guy wasn't supposed to last past the premiere innit? They've made us suffer enough.

Date: 2005-03-01 10:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dargie.livejournal.com
Okay, my take on it is this: They're on the island for a reason, and that reason seems to be to settle some issues from their past. Who has done that? Alternately, who has so completely rejected the possibility of doing that that he's now a lost cause? If there's someone who fits either of those categories, he'd be my pick. Locke fits pretty well into the former, so I'd choose him, but who does Locke really trust? I mean really? Enough that there could be any ultimate betrayal? Sayid may well be close to this category, too.

Jin rejecting Sun might put him firmly into the latter category. Boone still trying to come between Shannon and Sayid might do it, too. We don't know enough about Hurley to know what his issues are, Sawyer obviously has a lot of work to do as do Jack and Michael. And I think Charlie has a lot more to do in his life.

However, as I said to some friends over supper on Saturday, "Who's to say if they mean Dead dead or just dead, you know?" Dead was almost never really dead on Buffy after all, so why should we assume it's going to be on Lost?

Date: 2005-03-01 10:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tylergrrls.livejournal.com
There's also the trivia that Jack was supposed to die in the pilot...

Better late than never, I say. ;)

-Bree

Date: 2005-03-02 01:03 am (UTC)

Date: 2005-03-01 11:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] etoilepb.livejournal.com
I adore Hurley, which makes me concerned for him.

Frankly, though, it interests me to imagine them offing Jack or Locke, who, along with Hurley, are the ones who Make Things Go. Those three tend to have most of the big ideas. (Sun's garden is a quieter idea. Notice how men's bravado is all over the place and women's practicality just passes by? And I mean that in terms of the show's internal world, not just in how we watch it.) So with one of them gone...

Between the two, I'd rather lose Jack.

Date: 2005-03-01 11:21 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] etoilepb.livejournal.com
Oh, and too add: Even though they've already played the "Boone does something stupid that gets someone killed" card once, I wouldn't rule out its happening again. I think he's probably involved in a middle stage, maybe not performing any intentional betrayal but, like, a Romeo and Juliet kind of thing, where he delivers false information without knowing it.

Date: 2005-03-02 12:43 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cherusha.livejournal.com
Oh please don't be Hurley, Oh please don't be Hurley, Oh please don't be Hurley.

I'm hoping it'll be Jack or, failing that, Sawyer who is really starting to get on my nerves. If Locke or Sayid dies, I'll probably quit watching the show.

Date: 2005-03-02 01:35 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] minaloush.livejournal.com
see, the spoilage that it's a betrayal from someone he trusts - makes me think it's sawyer. he's got that whole budding cuteness with kate, and she is all about the betrayal. and if no one knew she was responsible, it would set her up for jack relationshipness next season.

that said, i'd rather see jack die.

Date: 2005-03-02 03:05 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] foresthouse.livejournal.com
I don't know who I think will die, although I have it narrowed down in my head to Jack, Sawyer, or Boone.

But probably not Jack since he is the DOC. and the HERO.

I also could totally see Kate being the killer.

But here's my really twisted prediction:
Jack kills someone, accidentally, while trying to save them from some sort of accident or something. [insert identification with father figure here]. Then he feels so guilty about it that he goes off or something, and thus isn't on hand when Claire needs help with the baby.

Hmmm...

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